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After the disaster that was game six of the NLCS, the fingers were pointed in various directions by Cub fans looking for someone to blame. There was the Oswaldian fall-guy Steve Bartman, the slow hook of Dusty Baker, the error by Alex Gonzalez, but none of these really hit the mark. While the Cubs had an excellent chance to win, in the end, they really just weren't good enough. While the starting rotation was superb, the bullpen was mediocre and the offense, especially once Baker's veteran presence guys were brought in, was pretty weak. The two most important priorities for the Cub front office this off-season were to improve those areas. As the hot stove begins to cool, it is fair to take a look and see how they did. Catcher:
Miller was a huge let down last season and at 34 doesn't figure to get better anytime soon. I have no doubt he will perform better in '04 than he did in '03, but I would be surprise if he ever tops a .750 OPS again. Barrett is an interesting case. A former first-round pick and hot prospect of the Montreal Expos, he initially struggled with plate discipline. He has made strides there and in 2002 he had a breakthrough season with a .750 OPS. Last season, however, his game collapsed amidst injuries. Still just 27, Barrett should improve this season, though perhaps not to his 2002 form. The Cubs likely improved themselves here, though how much is certainly an open question. First Base:
Barring injury or drop-off from Lee, this position should be a huge upgrade to the Cubs offense. The future ramifications of trading Choi may come back to haunt the Cubs, but for this season alone, Lee is a great pick-up. While commentators may gush about his great defense, the biggest thing Lee adds to the Cubs is his ability to get on-base. While the Cubs ranked ninth in the NL in runs scored last season, a lot of that was due to pure luck as they ranked thirteenth in OBP. While Lee alone will not fix that, his presence goes along way, especially considering who he is replacing. Second Base:
While Thom Brenneman and Steve Lyons gushed about Mark Grudzielanek during the playoffs, it is to the Cubs credit that they didn't believe the hype. Grudz is mediocre defensively and has very mediocre power and patience. His only value is when his batting average is well over .300, like last season. His .782 OPS was well out of line with his career norms which place him at .716. The Cubs could have hoped that lightening would strike twice, or they could go out and get some insurance. They made the right choice. While Walker is a statue at second and is coming off of a down season, he has far more secondary skills than Grudz and I would be surprised if he doesn't put up something close to his .780 career OPS this year. Unlike Grudz, Walker does not need to hit .320 to be valuable. Another excellent move which should keep this position stable in quality, rather than a predicted drop-off had they stood pat. Center Field:
While I was not initially enthused about the Cubs acquisition of Lofton, he performed very well and was one of the few '03 Cubs who was willing to take a walk. While Corey Patterson was very good in his 83 games last season, I have concerns here. Patterson is coming off of a torn ACL. Will he be ready for opening day? If he isn't, who fills in? Tom Goodwin? Behind that lies a deeper concern. While Patterson has come farther than I ever though he would, he is still very raw. Masked by his .298 batting average and power outburst last year was his continued inability to take a walk. While he improved here, slightly, in '02, for his career he has drawn a walk once every twenty seven plate appearances. That is beyond mediocre, that is just awful. I am always very skeptical of players who show success despite not drawing walks. While I hope he can produce as he did a year ago, or even improve, this could be a serious problem that keeps him from fulfilling his immense potential. In the short-term, I worry about the effect his presence will have on a lineup already short on players who get on base. Bullpen:
Good riddance to the departures. Alfonseca has been overrated for years and last season he finally blew up to the point that even his Proven Closer label couldn't save him. Guthrie was much worse than his ERA indicated and Veres hardly pitched and is nothing special for sure. The two pickups, on the other hand, are mighty tasty indeed. Hawkins appears to have found his home in the bullpen and should team with Kyle Farnsworth to provide the Cubs with a pair of flame-throwing setup men. It's hard to know what to make of Kent Mercker. Either last season was fluke, or he has figured out something new. While I don't expect him to have a 1.95 ERA, I also do not expect him to post Alfonseca like numbers. Assuming that age doesn't catch up with Mercker and Mike Remlinger, and Joe Borowski's deal with the devil doesn't expire, a Borowski, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Mercker, Remlinger, Cruz bullpen looks pretty damn solid. If any of them stumble, the Cubs have a host of great arms in the minors ready to step in. More than any other area on the Cubs, the bullpen is greatly improved. At least thus far, I find little to quibble with amongst the Cubs off-season moves. I would still like to see them get some insurance for Corey Patterson in center and upgrade at catcher and shortstop, but the bullpen looks to be a strength as opposed to the Achilles heel it was a year ago and the offense should be improved as well. There are still four months to go before opening day, but at this writing the Cubs should be considered the prohibitive favorite to win the NL Central in '04 with a very good shot at winning the Series. Andy Brown has been killing little kids since the 60's. Click here to e-mail him. |
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©Copyright 2003
Phil Orr
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