The Crystal Ball
Who will win and who will... not win
01/21/04
Aaron Wolfson

This is a tough time to be a baseball writer. With the excellent-thus-far NFL playoffs nearing their climax, most people's thoughts have been far from the baseball scene recently. So hey, when in doubt, it's fun to predict things. Moves are always being made, so it's never a bad time to sit back and say, "This is what's going to happen."

Playoff Teams
	The improvement from Vazquez and Brown over Clemens and Pettitte should counter the Red Sox addition of Schilling and re-signing of Kim for the rotation. On offense, the Yanks get Sheffield but lose Johnson, while the Sox lost Walker and have failed thus far on tries to get A-Rod. It doesn't really matter who wins the East, but it will likely by New York.
	OK, I'm kidding... but the fact is, no team from the Central has a prayer of making the World Series this year. The Twins had holes blown in their bullpen and behind the plate, while the White Sox lost their one-year rentals and ace Colon. The Royals performed the best almost by default -- they did manage to get Gonzalez, but who knows what he'll produce?
	Tough break for the Angels and M's this year -- with the Sox and Yankees locked in an arms race, the wild card won't be leaving the AL East any time soon. And the A's yet again look to top the division, on the backs of the best starting pitchers in baseball.
	There has been so much rumor and speculation surrounding this team and New York that it's difficult to see exactly how all the various moves and potential moves will shake out over 162 games. Barring major injuries, there doesn't seem to be any reason that Boston and New York won't be the top two teams in the AL once again.
	The Phillies are the only NL East contender that did not lose at least one major offensive contributor, and were able to strengthen their staff by bringing back Millwood and trading for Wagner.
	Although the Astros are the trendy pick to win, the Cubs improved just as much and still appear to have the better team. Don't forget about Patterson's return from injury.
	As long as Bonds is around, the Giants needn't worry about winning the NL West. They lose Worrell but get Nen back from injury and improve at catcher with Pierzynski.
	The Astros are more than capable of sliding into the wild card spot should the Cubs beat them. They'll have to fend off the weaker Braves and Marlins, and potentially the Cardinals and Dodgers.

American League MVP

Alex Rodriguez, SS, Texas -- Manny and Carlos may have surpassed him last year in production, but playing at shortstop shoots A-Rod's value through the roof. Entering his prime, he should be winning this every year.

National League MVP

Barry Bonds, OF, San Francisco -- It's a perennial question now; when will Bonds finally drop off? I'm betting it doesn't happen this year, and that Bonds will take home yet another trophy. With Bonds' extremely atypical career path, there's really no way to predict what he'll do, and by the same token, there's no reason not to believe he won't keep going strong through 2004.

American League Cy Young

Javier Vazquez, SP, New York Yankees -- Pedro would be a lock for this every year if there was any guarantee he'd stay healthy. But with his notorious frailty, it's almost certain that Pedro won't pitch enough to win this award. Vazquez will surely benefit from a huge boost in run support, which will make his numbers appear to be more of an improvement than they actually are.

National League Cy Young

Mark Prior, SP, Chicago Cubs -- All the Gagne talk drives me nuts; why should someone who pitches a third of the innings that a starter does be considered the most valuable? Prior is a beast, and barring injury should make another significant performance leap this year, which would certainly put him at the top of the NL crop.

American League Rookie of the Year

Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland A's -- You know Beane must have a reason for being so confident while letting Tejada walk. Picking who will be the top rookie is more or less a crapshoot at this stage, but Crosby will certainly have a chance to contend if he's given the job as expected.

National League Rookie of the Year

Kaz Matsui, SS, New York Mets -- Even though Hideki Matsui's loss last year finally broke the string of victories by Japanese pros who don't deserve to be classified as rookies, that by no means signifies that they're done. Unless another Dontrelle Willis comes along, this award will likely go to Matsui unless he implodes or pulls an Irabu.

That's how things look now, but with the A-Rod talks reportedly back on, one is reminded that the baseball landscape can change just like that. And as the time before the season grows smaller, there will (thankfully) be more to talk about!