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If you are to be a GM in baseball today, it's important to understand the maxim of "free talent." Now, this point is obviously a lot less important for the Yankees than it is for the Athletics or the Blue Jays, as the latter teams have payrolls about 1/3rd as large as the Yankees, and must maximise every dollar they spend. However, even the Yankees can benefit from saving several million dollars and finding bargains in free agency, minor-league free agency and released players, as opposed to paying "proven veterans" millions of dollars for equal or lesser production. Andy looked at the power the proven veteran was having over rookie Mariner GM Bill Bavasi last week, and this week I want to look in the opposite direction, that is at some moves that could pay large dividends for teams but got a percentage of the press coverage that a move like Rich Aurilia's signing did. Some of you have probably never heard of Henri Stanley. Stanley, who turned 26 in December, a product of Clemson University, was claimed on Friday, November 14, off waivers by the San Diego Padres, from the Houston Astros. Suprisingly, the Astros could no longer find a spot for Stanley on their 40-man roster, and the Padres, getting first waiver claim by virtue of the fact they finished last in the National League last year, pounced quickly. Here are Stanley's stats for the past 3 years
Now, those stats don't look particularly outstanding, however, they are nothing to sneeze at either. While you can't equate minor league performance with major-league performance at an exactly equal standpoint, Alan Schawrz's EPSN column yesterday mentions the fact that the average major-league OPS was .810, a figure that Stanley exceeded last year in New Orleans. Yes, the average OPS for outfielders is likely higher than .810 due to the offence usually found at that position, but by the same token, this average OPS was for the 165 hitters who qualified for the batting title, thus eliminating many poorer players who were likely to bring down the average numbers. Baseball Prospectus calculates Stanley's Minor League Equivalent Average as .300, and his major league equivalent average as .250, not numbers to sneeze at, especially when you consider Stanley does have gap power and a fairly reasonable, but not great, eye. San Diego has a crowded outfield situation next year with Brian Giles, Phil Nevin, Jay Payton, Terrance Long and Xavier Nady. However, based on Nady's minor league stats in 2002 and 2003 and his lack of production last year, I think he might be better served with some more time in the minors, and Stanley would be better suited to the job of reserve outfielder. It's not a hard task, but I am certain that Stanley will outperform Long if he is given a reasonable number of at-bats in the big leagues, and he could become San Diego's primary outfield reserve. I know it may not be a huge deal, but finding a low-risk, medium-reward outfielder for the $25,000 waiver claim price is nothing to sneeze at when you consider the number of reserve outfielders able to chalk up contracts in the million dollar plus range, just because they have been around in the big leagues for a number of years. A very pertinent example comes from the very same team that waived Henri Stanley, then on January 16 decided they needed a second reserve outfielder behind Jason Lane, and signed Orlando Palmeiro to a one-year $750,000 contract. Orlando Palmeiro's stats for the past 3 years
The Astros let a perfectly competent outfielder with no big league experience and. 3 very cheap contract years go, only to sign a noticably worse player for more than double what Stanley will make. Not only will Stanley outperform Terrence Long next year if he is given the chance, he will also outperform Orlando Palmeiro. And it won't be very hard. Stanley probably won't ever be a regular, but he could become a good backup/average platoon outfielder in the Reed Johnson mode. Not to say Palmeiro isn't, but I met Stanley once in spring training and he seems like a very nice guy. The Blue Jays found success in minor-league free agency last year with Trever Miller, the lefty specialist who had an average season and led the AL in appearances. Miller moved onto the Devil Rays after he and the Jays couldn't come to terms on a contract for 2004. They hope to duplicate that success this year, and have made a few minor-league signings that could turn out well for the team in Juan Campos, Josue Matos and Jayson Durocher, not to mention the well-travelled Bruce Chen. Juan Campos' stats for the past 3 years
Josue Matos' stats for the past 3 years (he was injured in 2001 and did not pitch)
Jayson Durocher's stats for the past 3 years
Now, Campos and Matos have been putting up their stats in AA, and will almost certainly start this year in Triple-A Syracuse, however there are signs that both of them have potential, and might find their way onto the big-league club in cases of injury or if they turn in a good performance at Syracuse. Campos is only 23 years old, and had promising splits at AA in 2003, following a similarly successful year at A ball in 2002. He appears to have good control and a very good K ratio, leading me to believe that he is a promising reliefr prospect and there seems to be little reason to believe he can't continue his improvement and end up maybe as a big-league reliever in late 2004 or 2005. Matos was injured in 2001, and it appeared to stagnate his development. I'm speculating but maybe Seattle felt his arm strength was affected and that he'd be better out of the pen, where he is able to conserve his strength for short bursts of time. If that was their thinking, it looks like it paid dividends as while Matos struggled with his control he racked up very good strikeout numbers in 2003, and he is one to watch at Syracuse at well. Durocher is the only one who has big league experience, as he had a good year in 2002 with Milwaukee, but ran into injury problems as well, and barely pitched in 2003. Interestingly, I expected that Durocher may have got a big lucky in 2002 when looking at his walk and strikeout rates, however, his component ERA was 1.88, exactly what his real ERA was. I don't think you can expect him to allow 5.06 hits per 9 innings again, but if Durocher has recovered from his injury, he could well make it as Toronto's last man in the pen if they carry 7 releivers (a job he will be competing with Bruce Chen and Talley Haines for). Allen Baird has been making some astute moves in the past couple of years, and while he seems to emphasise different skills than GMs like Billy Beane and J.P. Ricciardi, or at least does not have two feet in the OBP camp like they do, he has made some good moves the past two seasons. He did his best last year to keep the Royals in the playoff hunt throughout the year by looking at every conceivable area to find talent from independent leagues (Jose Lima) to the Rule V draft (D.J. Carrasco) to pitchers available cheaply in trade (Curt Leskanic and Brian Anderson). While I don't like the idea of giving two guaranteed years to Benito Santiago, especially when it didn't appear as though he had much competition in bidding, Baird has resigned Leskanic and Anderson and also signed Scott Sullivan and Juan Gonzalez for reasonable prices. Baird made another signing that has got lost in the press surrounding Gonzalez and Santiago, but which could turn into a very astute pickup in Tony Pena utilises the lineup properly. Baird signed Matt Stairs to a one-year $1 million contract, and if Pena properly platoons Stairs and Ken Harvey at 1B/DH (I presume they'll play at DH when Mike Sweeney is at 1B, and then 1B if Sweeney of Juan Gonzalez wants the day at DH) then this could become one of the most effective platoons in recent memory. Matt Stairs' stats for the last 3 years against righties
Now, look at what Ken Harvey did versus lefties last year
With that, Ken Harvey goes from being a well below-average first baseman to half of a very-good platoon, and this immensely improves the production KC will receive from the DH hole. Signing Stairs to hit righties is a good move regardless, and when you team him with Ken Harvey it becomes a very good move. If the Royals are smart enough to promote David DeJesus to play RF and let him have at-bats instead of Aaron Guiel, and if Juan Gonzalez can avoid injuries, or at least any serious ones, the Royals could have an offence to be reckoned with, especially in the very weak AL Central. By no means are these the only good minor-league free agent signings or is Matt Stairs the only bargain of the season, but these are just a few of the ones that I believe have the best chance of reaping benefits or showing immediate results. Thomas Ayers welcomes any and all feedback on this, or any of his other articles. He acknowledges the great work of E.D. Morel and Roger Casement, among others. |
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©Copyright 2003
Phil Orr
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