How The Angels Got Vlady
Who should really get a tip of the cap for wooing Guerrero to Anaheim, and why it won't be repeat of the Angels' last big free-agent signing.
01/24/04
Neate Sager

Sure, the Angels' pursuit of Vladimir Guerrero was aided by the presence of Hispanic owner, Arte Moreno, who (at least in the eyes of the media) can serve as a father figure for the 28-year-old right fielder. The fact they concede the spotlight in Southern California to the Dodgers, Lakers and political shenanigans, also doesn’t hurt, seeing as Guerrero supposedly was cool to playing in a big market.

The Halos also inked Guerrero’s countryman and ex-teammate Bartolo Colón to a free-agent pact earlier this off-season.

However, the man who should get much of the credit for helping the club land Guerrero’s services is Angels first-base coach Alfredo Griffin, whom. Toronto Blue Jays fans remember as the guy who kept shortstop warm for Tony Fernandez in the early 1980s and later earned two World Series rings with the club in the ’90s.

CBS Sportsline reported the two men had a heart-to-heart chat shortly before Vlady decided to play in a city he had never visited.

Griffin and Guerrero spoke by telephone late last week, before the deal was done, and the importance of that conversation should not be underestimated.

As an example of the esteem his younger countrymen hold him in, when Griffin rejoined the Jays back in 1992, shortstop Manuel Lee, changed his jersey from No. 4 to No. 2 so Griffin could have his favourite number. It was if Manny was saying, You paved the way for me.

Sentiment aside, is committing to Guerrero the wisest choice for Angels GM Bill Stoneman?

One of my blogging brethren at Sportspages.com, Chris Lynch, suggested there are "certain similarities" between Vlady and the Angels’ last major free-agent signing, MoVaughn, whose career prospects are about as bright right now as those of the finalists from the first season of American Idol.

Lynch later backtracked, saying, "I never said they were mirror images," although no one actually accused him of such a statement. With all due respect, I submitted the two players were not at all similar aside from their raw stats, and there is little reason to believe history will repeat itself with this Anaheim free-agent signing.

At the risk of getting bogged down in statistical ephemera, in six seasons as a full-time player at Fenway, Vaughn’s best park-adjusted OPS+ was 155 (i.e., 55 per cent better than the American League average).

The only season his raw OPS topped 1000 came in the home run-addled summer of 1996, and he just barely reached that plateau.

Playing in the National League, where the league average is skewed somewhat due to pitchers’ pitiful hitting, Guerrero has recorded seasons where he outperformed the NL by 62 and 66 per cent. In three of the past four seasons, his OPS exceeded 1000.

Basically, the above totals illustrate the fine line between a very good hitter and a very, very good hitter.

And not only is Guerrero joining the Angels at a younger age (28) than Vaughn did (he was 31 when he signed there before the ’99 season), but he doesn’t carry some of the same, uh, baggage than has, er, weighed Big Mo down in recent years.

Vaughn's decline as a player since leaving Boston can be traced to 3 factors:

1) The battle of the bulge

Similar to Cecil Fielder, another "fat guy who hit a lot of home runs for a few years," Vaughn has struggled to cut a svelte figure, and that’s about the nicest way I can say it.

I'm a large man myself, so I can appreciate an individual who has better metabolism and lower body-fat levels is more likely to be able to recover
from injuries and regain his previous level of performance.

(Incidentally, who played 72 games at first game for the Angels in 1998, the year before Disney broke the bank to sign Vaughn? Cecil Fielder. No kidding.)

A player with the problems Vaughn has is more likely to have lingering and/or nagging little hurts which cause him to miss games, and gradually grow into
chronic problems. For example, Vaughn is expected to sit out all of 2004 due to an arthritic left knee.

Conversely, Guerrero, who was quite skinny as a younger player and has a body type more generally associated with a NFL receiver or a NHL winger, played in 62 of the Expos' last 64 games after coming off the DL last season. It's hard to imagine Vaughn coming back from a similar injury without needing further downtime.

A back problem can be rehabbed; a weight problem is often a lifetime problem. (I know all too well.)

2) High strikeout totals

Even when he was successful, Vaughn routinely struck out 150-plus times each season. That's all well and good when the high whiff totals pay off in good power numbers.

However, it is a warning sign the player may drop off the face of the earth quickly if his power decreases.

The unique thing about Guerrero is his second-to-almost-no-one plate coverage. He rarely has to concede the inner or outer half of the plate to the pitcher, and this is practically unheard-of among even the best hitters in the world. He has never struck out more than 95 times in a season, and that was in 1998, his first full year.

In other words, he's not going to get himself out in the name of trying to maintain his stats. Home runs and RBI are more of a by-product of his ability to get bat on ball, with power.

Which is the complete opposite of the method currently in vogue, swinging with power and "hoping" the bat meets with the ball, which is like the old adage of live by the sword, die by the sword.

3) Being one-dimensional

Building on the previous point, the enduring image of Vaughn is of a guy whose value was concentrated in his home runs, RBI, and OPS. Out of generosity, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in the field - although he often reached double digits in errors - but first base is his only position. Nor can he run, as evidenced by his career total of 30 stolen bases.

If he can’t hit homers, what does he have to fall back on?

Vlady has his faults. No less an authority than Rob Neyer placed Guerrero on the Expos' "Iron Glove" team in his Big Book of Baseball Lineups. Vlady’s defence didn’t exactly make the 6,000 or so true believers at Olympic Stadium forget Ellis Valentine or Andre Dawson or Larry Walker.

Generally, his pratfalls occur after he goes for the highlight-reel catch or throw instead of the more mundane feat of making the proper play.

Nevertheless, he is more or less a complete player who can hit, hit for power, run, field and throw. At least in comparison to nearly any first baseman.

My point, and I do have one

On the whole, Guerrero is a special talent whom according to the Similarity Scores, has compared with Willie Mays from age 23 to 27.

Perhaps my optimism about his fresh start in Anaheim is borne from my admiration for his skills. The back problems he suffered from 2003 present some concern.

Then again, he won’t be playing 81 home games on the concrete-hard surface at the Big O, which had finally been replaced with FieldTurf years after it should have been. (The playing surface of the Expos' "vacation home," Hiram Bithorn Stadium, also consists of the stuff the late Tug McGraw said he never smoked.

In conclusion, I can’t see why we can't look forward to Vladimir Guerrero continuing to be a productive player in the years ahead.