 |
||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
Brian Sabean- Trader king ? Evaluating General Mangers is a task often left to the media- if you believe the Los Angeles papers, Dan Evans' primary paycheck is being paid by the Giants and D-Backs. In San Francisco , Brian Sabean is generally considered the pick of the litter, and was last year named Executive of the Year by the The Sporting News. Perhaps Sabean's greatest strength has been his trading- over the period where he has served as the GM, he's hardly been beaten. In this week's article, I intend to analyze some of his better trades, and the resulting success. A big thanks to STL over at primer for compiling a list of transactions and filling in the gaps of my aging, 21- year old memory.
1. Acquired Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez, Joe Roa, and Jose Vizcaino and $1 million for Matt Williams and Trinidad Hubbard (Nov 13, 1996) The big kahuna- possibly the most vilified deal in recent Giants history (at the time of the deal), and in retrospect, probably the most successful – Sabean turned an aging Matt Williams into a 2b who followed an above average first season (.250/.316/.472 – OPS+ of 105) with a 5 year stretch where his lowest OPS was .877. During his Giants tenure, Kent averaged an OPS+ of 138, culminating in a 2000 season that saw him win the NL MVP while hitting .334/.424/.596 and an OPS+ of 165. Jose Vizcaino played one season for the Giants, distinguishing himself with a .266/.323/.350 line and primarily succeeding in keeping Ritchie Aurillia pinned to the bench. His greatest contribution came when he signed a 3 year, $9 million deal with the Dodgers that off-season, and proceeded with 3 seasons where his OPS went from .649 to .601 to .536. Tavares spent a couple of useful years in the pen before being released, a useful cog at a low price. At the time of the deal, Matt Williams was a 30 year old 3b who had been hadn't played more than 112 games in the past three years, but had been devastating when healthy- his OPS+ in those 3 seasons was 140, 176, and 133. In retrospect, the deal was a great winner- Williams had exactly one season left in him with an OPS+ over a 100- a remarkable fall for a player whose strike-shortened 1994 season lead him to winning the MVP. All in all, a huge win for Sabean- he traded an overvalued 3b for a player who had an amazing peak, going from talented player to potential HOF. Undoubtedly the best deal of Sabean's tenure.
2. Robb Nenn for Joe Fontenot, Mike Pageler & Mike Villano (Nov 18, 1997) The then (and now) World Champions Marlins were engaged in an off-season fire sale, and “proven closer” ™ Robb Nenn was available. The Giants, having both Rod Beck and Roberto Hernandez (who had come over in the White Flag deal), seemed like unlikely suitors- but to his credit, Sabean picked the best of the lot. Nenn has been positively Saberhagen-esque in his Giants career (ERA+ since 1998: 267, 103, 285, 133, 172) with a high of 88 2/3 innings, and a low of 66 in the period- and has generally been one of the better relievers in baseball during that period. The prospects involved were complete busts- as a trio, they pitched 42 2/3 innings with an ERA of 6.33 thanks to Fontenot's 1998 stretch. Another huge win for the Giants and Sabean– the price was considered steep at the time, but has turned out to be a veritable bargain. The only potential downside might be the 4yr $32 million deal signed by Nenn- but such runs the price of a high-end “proven closer” ™.
3. Livan Hernandez for Jason Grilli and Nate Bump (July 25, 1999) Watching Livan Hernandez pitch is only slightly less appetizing than a Steve Traschel snooze-fest; while he lacks the snail-like pace of Traschel, Livan always appeared to have an extra 40 pounds to spare. His performance wasn't much better; in his 3 and a half seasons with the Giants, his greatest role was as an innings-eater who had exactly one above average season. The 1997 postseason NL MVP provided to be extraordinary in the clutch- a 14.29 ERA in the 2002 WS displayed a rare level of incompetence, and his Game 7 performance was the stuff that losers are made of (Not that I'm bitter that he blew the Giants best chance to win a world series in 50 years or anything). Despite my personal disdain, 4 years of basically average pitching with 200 innings per still outweighs the contribution of Grilli and Bump – the former being the only one to reach the majors, compiling 33 1/3 innings at a 5.94 ERA. In essence, Sabean dealt two former first round picks for a pitcher who an ERA of 4.76 at the time of the deal (leading even John Sickels to call the price paid as extremely generous) and came out the clear winner. Dombrowski was considered a fairly good GM in Florida , but his record when dealing with Sabean is not resume building material.
4. Tim Worrell for Bill Mueller (November 18, 2000) Facing the probability of a potential $4 million arbitration award for Mueller (who had an OPS+ of 89 the season before), this deal was generally considered to be a salary dump, Worrell's 2.99 ERA the previous season notwithstanding. Worrell was average in 2001 and good in 2002 (ARP of -0.9 and 9.3 respectively), albeit awful at dealing with inherited runners, which made him better suited to the closer role he took in 2003- playoff hits to Ivan Rodriguez notwithstanding. Mueller spent a significant portion of 2 seasons with the Cubs on the injured list – and unless one considers his 2003 performance as predictable, Sabean probably gets credit for a good deal here, given the stated goals.
5. Felix Rodriguez for Troy Browhan and Chris Van Rossum (December 8, 1998) Quite possibly the most entertaining Giants pitcher to watch when he's on- The hitter, his mother, and the concession stand guy all know that the heater is coming- and yet are absolutely unable to do anything about it. Stolen from the D-backs, he's was amongst the best relievers in baseball from 2000-200; while his performance has dropped off since then (due amongst other things to his pitching while injured for the first half of 2002). His time in a Giants uniform is probably up after 2003, but he's surely been better than Browhan, who pitched 49 innings in a D-backs uniform and was subsequently cut. Once again, Sabean shows an ability to go out and find value where many saw none.
6. Ellis Burks (July 31, 1998) Acquired for Daryl Hamilton and 26-year old Single-A closer Jim Stoops, Burks' run in SF was brilliant, albeit short. In the two full seasons he spent in San Francisco, he had an OPS+ of 153 and 166 respectively- however, has aging knees prevented him from accumulating 500 PA in the that period. A personal favorite, Burks provided great value in his short period there- and as is often the case- the price proved eminently reasonable.
7. Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong (July 30, 2001) If the Kent deal was Sabean's greatest move as the Giant's GM, the Schmidt acquisition was a close 2 nd . At the time of the deal, Schmidt was a 28 year old former Braves farmhand (in terms of warning labels, not much loom bigger) who had an ERA of 4.69- comparisons to Livan Hernandez, at least superficially, seemed legitimate. Upon coming over to the Giants though, Schmidt made steady improvement, with a solid 2002 and a 2003 performance that would have won him the Cy Young most years. Vander Wal was a decent bat of the bench and was turned into Jay Witasick, who proved to be useful out of the pen for a year- a decently valuable asset. To makes things worse for the Pirates, both Rios and Vogelsong suffered catastrophic injuries with a couple of weeks of the deal- Rios remains a somewhat useful 5 th OF type, while Vogelsong looks to be finally healthy. For the most part, Sabean and co have had an uncanny ability to project their pitching talent, especially in the minors- in his nine year tenure, the best prospect he has given up in a deal has probably been Keith Foulke and the vast majority of them have never come made the big leagues. Even the Foulke trade, part of the infamous White-Flag deal and probably the worst deal of Sabean's tenure comes with a catch- the Giants reached the playoffs, and were attempting to gain a new stadium at the time, making a short-term benefit deal more desirable. Other than Foulke and Bobby Howry (part of the same deal), Sabean has dealt away exactly one prospect (read: minor leaguer) who has had a career exceeding a 100 innings: Scott Linebrink. The best hitting prospect dealt away in the period ? Mike Caruso. While much has been made of the inability of the Giants farm system to produce during Sabean's tenure, his farm system has always been valuable to those who matter the most- opposing GM's. Recently though, a few cracks in Sabes' armor have begun to show- the Sidney Ponson deal (giving up Ainsworth, Hanamman, and Damian “Wild Thing” Moss) looks like it might loom large in the future. Furthermore, picking Reuter over Ortiz last year looks fairly questionable- Merkin Valdez may be the only reason to justify that action. Then again, given Sabean's record- one might be foolhardy to bet against him. Feel free to respond with suggestions, insults, or tips on how to best live of a college budget- also, any advice for where I can find a good apartment in Boston next year (the real world) is greatly appreciated, at ashekar@andrew.cmu.edu
|
||||||
|
©Copyright 2003
Phil Orr
|
