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Berroa
Wins for the Wrong Reasons "I guess I just looked too old for a rookie." The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has begun awarding, or in some cases mis-awarding the major awards of the offseason. The annual Rookie of the Year awards were handed out on Monday, and as usual the most deserving player was left without the trophy. While the NL voters were, not surprisingly, blinded by win totals, a funky delivery and a soft-spoken 21-year old pitcher, the AL voters appear to have got it right this year, handing the award to Angel Berroa instead of to the ex-Japanese MVP Hideki "Godzilla" Matsui. When the year began the players being branded as the ROY candidates were Matsui, a slugging third basemen on the Texas Rangers named Mark Texeira, and a slick middle infielder on the Cleveland Indians by the name of Brandon Phillips. Angel Berroa was an afterthought, having aged two years due to stricter visa laws in the offseason, and coming off a year where he hit .215 at Omaha with limited patience and a lot of strikeouts. Berroa was facing a make-or-break year and many believed that not only had Billy Beane swindled Allan Baird out of Johnny Damon, but he had also received the better minor leaguer in Mark Ellis. By the end of the year a very different picture would emerge with Jody Gerut, Rocco Baldelli and Francisco Rodriguez being talked about as ROY contenders, along with Berroa and Matsui. Teixeira was lagging behind after a reasonably disappointing year and Phillips had dropped off the radar, much like Berroa did in 2002. With deserving respect to Aquilino Lopez for a very good under-the-radar season, as well as Reed Johnson who showcased some nice talent in Toronto when he was given playing time, I will talk about 6 players who may be considered for the ROY award. VORP is Value Above Replacement Player
It's quite obvious from these numbers that Teixeira can be taken right out of the competition. When you consider the numbers in the brackets are the average EQAs for their respective position, one realises that Rocco Baldelli, despite his defensive skills just hasn't been as good as Jody Gerut this year, in my opinion. The debate comes down to whether Gerut or Rodriguez should be third on the ballot, and whether Matsui or Berroa should win the award. K-Rod had an ERA+ of 140 in 86 innings. He struck out 95 batters while allowing only 50 hits, but his controlled betrayed him a bit as he walked 35 batters. Gerut had an OPS+ of 122, while hitting .279/.336/.494 in 480 at-bats. Now, basically the debate in my mind appears to come down to the question of if Rodriguez's advantage outweighs the fact that Gerut was almost an everyday player, while Rodriguez was a reliever. I think it does, and I would have listed Rodriguez third on my ballot. He faced 334 batters, which means Gerut has an advantage of about 43% at-bats than Rodriguez. Rodriguez has a 51% advantage in VORP, however, which appears to negate that. Rodriguez has the advantage in relative stats (ERA+ compared to OPS+) and Gerut is an average defensive corner outfielder, so defensive value does not really sway that opinion. When looking at right fielders, Gerut appears to be about average in terms of RARP and his EQA is .002 points higher than the positional average. Rodriguez has a better advantage compared to his counterparts to, as his 12.5 Adjusted Runs Prevented would rank him first on 6 teams in the AL, and second on several others. K-Rod's playoff success last year overshadowed a very good rookie season this year. Hideki Matsui seems to believe he didn't win the award because many voters did not consider him a true rookie, despite his comments that Berroa deserved to win it. I'm sure many Yankees fans think the same way; just as many Marlins fans were outranged Sports Illustrated picked Brandon Webb as their NL ROY. And it appears that two writers left Matsui off their ballot because they did believe he was not a rookie in the traditional sense of the word. Bill Ballou of the Worcester Telegram and Gazette said, "I really do think he is not a rookie in the traditional and true sense of what a rookie is. I think major league baseball has to look at redefining what a rookie is." Ballou left Matsui off his ballot, and the other writer who left Matsui completely off his ballot echoed Ballou's sentiments. However, I'd like to hear the reasoning of Bill Campbell and Pat Caputo, both of whom left Berroa off their ballots. Campbell works for the Dallas Morning News, and Mark Teixeira got three votes, one of them a first-place vote, which likely would have come at the expense of Matsui and/or Berroa. Is Campbell's connection a coincidence? I doubt it. I'm not going to get into the debate of whether Japanese players should be considered rookies. However, I think the argument is immaterial, as Berroa was simply a superior player this year. I think that is pretty evident when looking at the advanced stats above, where he has a clear advantage in VORP and RARP. Berroa's VORP is 51% better than Matsui's, and his EQA is 5.5% better than his position, while Matsui's is only 3.7% better. Even looking at more basic stats, one can see that Berroa is a better player.
It's a really close call when you look at raw offensive talent like that. I'd probably give the edge to Berroa, as the stolen bases, done at a good percentage, would give him the edge on what is a reasonably equivalent OPS. Without the SBs, I'd likely give it to Matsui, as he has the advantage in OBP, and I wouldn't argue with someone who gave it to him when looking at stolen bases too, but I might just give it to Berroa. However, two things give Berroa a big advantage, are touched upon in the advanced metrics above. The first is positional averages.
Quite simply, Matsui is worse than the average major league left fielder, while Berroa is noticeably better than the average major league shortstop. However, this might be countered by the fact that Berroa isn't really a shortstop because of his terrible defensive (*cough* Derek Jeter *cough*) or maybe Matsui is spectacular with the glove in left field, and makes up the difference in defence. Berroa made 24 errors, however I don't give errors much weight when establishing defensive skills. Errors are a subjective stat to begin with, and, simply, if one SS reaches 30 more balls than another over the course of a season, and makes 5 errors, he'll have 5 more errors than that SS (assuming they are otherwise equal defensively). However, he'll still be a better SS as he'll have reached 25 more balls, and made 25 more outs. I'm not sure quite which defensive metric is best at this point, I'll admit, but no matter which one you use, Berroa comes out ahead significantly.
The numbers in the brackets are the positional ranking in the AL. Only 8 AL left fielders qualified for range factor and zone rating rankings. Defensive win shares are just arranged by outfielder, and by my count Matsui was 7th among AL left fielders. Angel Berroa plays a more important defensive position, and he plays it better than Matsui plays his position. This edge defensively, and his skills relative to his position offensively make it evident that Berroa deserved the AL ROY award in 2003. Unfortunately, it appears that two writers left Matsui off their ballot because of his prior experience, while two writers left Berroa off due to their ignorance. Whether or not Matsui deserves to be considred for the award, Berroa won basically the award because those two writers left Matsui off in protest of his age. Berroa won the award by four points, and if either of those writers had put Matsui in first place, or both had placed him second on their ballot, Matsui would have won. Surprisingly to most sabermetricians, Berroa won the award, however if two voters hadn't boycotted Matsui, he likely would not have, and the ignorance of many baseball writers would have shone through again. It's a shame that Berroa won the award in essence because two voters decided to hold Matsui's background against him, as opposed to winning it based on his 2003 season, which he deserved to. He won the award, just not for the right reasons. I don't understand how K-Rod got left off all ballots after the great year he had, but I suspect that voters didn't really consider him a rookie, after last year. I don't understand how anyone could think Mark Teixeira deserved a first place vote, but at least the voters got the winner right, and that's about all we can ask, regardless of the circumstances. On a side, and sadder, note, today is Remembrance Day. Lest we forget. |
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©Copyright 2003
Phil Orr
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