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Our New Pitcher's Name is. What? The only trade of baseball's first winter meetings sees AJ Pierzynski dealt to 11/16/03 Thomas Ayers The Minnesota Twins needed money, the San Francisco Giants needed a catcher and Brian Sabean and Terry Ryan decided to rectify that problem. During the first GM meetings of the offseason, the Giants acquired A.J. Pierzynski and a PTBNL or cash for pitchers Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano. This trade, which really doesn't come as a surprise to Twins fans, serves several purposes for Minnesota. Its clear Carl Pohlad isn't going to open his wallet for the franchise, and apparently he wants to keep the payroll in the $56 million range, which was what it was last year. Minnesota has several players due for raises next year through arbitration, including Johan Santana and Doug Mientkiewicz. Both of them will probably get reasonable raises, and Pierzynski was also eligible for arbitration this year. There was little chance Pohlad was going to keep all three around, especially when one considers the fact that Minnesota has three key free agents whom they'd probably like to resign; all of whom will demand significant money. Rumours are that the Twins might look into trading Jacque Jones,
and then might try and sign Stewart with the approximately $3 million
they save there. I don't really expect them to go after Stewart unless
they free up more cash; however, they still would like to resign Latroy
Hawkins and/or Eddie Guardado and this trade will ensure some cash
is available to sign one of those players, or another reliever at
least. In fact, let's look at the new salary situation for the Twins
So that adds up to $50.45 million for 14 players. Keeping in mind that this was a rough estimate, as it used arbitration estimates for a fair number of players. However, if you assume that the missing 11 players each make about $300,000, the total payroll of Minnesota reaches $53.15 million, very close to Pohlad's figure of $56 million. Assuming that Hawkins or Guardado will make around $3-4 million, this trade helped to free up enough money to sign one of the relievers, I think; but not both. I also don't see Shannon being resigned unless Jones or someone else is dealt, and then it's conceivable that an extra couple of million could be doled out to see Stewart to a deal in the $28 million/4 year range, which I what I think he'll end up commanding. So one benefit of this trade is that it frees up enough money to sign a reliever, be it Hawkins, Guardado or someone else. Now, another question to ask is who the Twins will replace Pierzynski with. Pierzynski hit .312/.360/.464/.824 in 487 at-bats last year, with a 30.7 VORP and a .285 EQA. One option is Matt LeCroy, who played 22 games at catcher this past year. LeCroy only threw out about 22% of baserunners so that's one drawback to moving him behind the plate, but Piezysnki only threw out 30.3% of baserunners so Minnesota will take a noticeable, but not huge, drop back there if LeCroy starts catching. LeCroy hit .287/.342/.490/.832 in 345 at-bats, with a 17.3 VORP and a .281 EQA. Basically, LeCroy could replace Pierzynski offensively and you wouldn't notice a difference, as the VORPs are close to equal once you adjust for at-bats. Moving LeCroy to catcher would mean the Twins would have to find a DH. There is the chance they could find a cheap find on the free agent market in the Scott Spiezio mould (.265/.326/.453/.77917.2 VORP, .271 EQA) for around a million bucks (which maybe a bit of a wishful thought on the Twins behalf, even considering the economic downturn) and if the Twins can't sign a DH than they could play some mixture of Dustan Mohr, Lew Ford and Mike Ryan at DH, and get some reasonable production there. The other alternative is to replace Pierzynski from within, and with all due respect to Rob Bowen who seems like a serviceable backup, this really is all about Joe Mauer. Mauer will come up to the big leagues to start, so I think he'll begin at Triple-A with Bowen backing up LeCroy in the majors, unless Minnesota is ready to play him regularly, in which case he might start. Mauer hit .341/.400/.453, for a .240 major league equivalency average at AA New Britain, which isn't outstanding, but shows that major league pitching likely wouldn't blow him out of the water. The question is if a contender like Minnesota will want to sit through what could potentially be a tough season for a rookie catcher, or if they will want him to try to develop his skills at Triple-A. My guess is that Minnesota will see how he does in spring training and will make a judgement based on that and their available options to spell LeCroy at DH. From what I can tell Ryan tends to be conservative with his prospect development, but I think they might view Mauer as a special case and I expect he'll be in the majors by midseason this year. Trading Pierzynski will cause an offensive loss, especially if they play Mauer through the entire season, but it won't be as big as people think if LeCroy gets added at-bats and the Twins pick up some cheap players through free agency or give more at-bats to Lew Ford and co. In return for Pierzynski Minnesota got Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano, the latter two being minor leaguers. Nathan's an interesting story, as he came up in 1999 as a starter and had basically an average season. He faltered in 2000 and had a below-average, but not awful season. He didn't pitch in the majors in 2001, had a cup of tea in 2002 and then came back last year as a reliever with a good year; a 2.96 ERA in 79 innings. Last year Nathan held righties to .136 opponent's batting average, while lefties hit .276 off of him. For his career those numbers are .204 and .265, respectively. Nathan also has noticeable home and away splits, as his home ERA last year was 1.99 while it was exactly 2 runs higher away from Pac Bell. For his career those numbers are 2.79 and 5.50, respectively. While I think you'll notice a drop in Nathan's numbers due to the fact he no longer pitchers half his game at Pac Bell, as long as Gardenhire tries to limit the number of times he faces lefties, I believe he'll be a fairly good middle or setup reliever. Minnesota also received two prospects in the deal, both right-handed minor league pitchers. Now, the star of the deal, as he may end up being the star of any transaction he is involved in, is Boof Bonser. Boof was drafted by the Giants out of high-school in the 2000 draft, and he promptly signed and went to the minors at the age of 18. His real name was John, but he picked up the nickname of Boof at some point in his childhood and I believe he has now legally changed his first name to Boof. It's impossible to cheer against this kid when you picture, 5 years down the road, a MetroDome full of Homer Hankie-waving Twins fans screaming "BOOF! BOOF! BOOF!" at the top of their lungs as he walks to the mound to start a key September game against the White Sox. Here are his minor league numbers:
Two numbers grab your attention there: his walks and his strikeouts. Everything I've read about him says basically the same thing: that he's a flame-throwing youngster with great stuff who struggles with his control, and this is borne out in his stats. John Sickels had this to say about him coming into the 2003 season: "Raw stuff is equivalent to Foppert's, but his command isn't as good. Struggled after ill-advised move to Double-A at the start of the season, but regained his bearings after moving back down to Class A. Great fastball/curve combination." His second-time around against Double-A
hitters didn't go as well as Admittedly, I can't find that much information on Liriano. Sickels gave him a "C" grade in his 2002 Prospect Handbook and said he's "basically your raw talent at this point, loose and projectable..he should be watched for further development." After that year Liriano, still only 18, pitched 80 innings for Single-A Hagerstown, giving up 61 hits, while walking 31, striking out 85 and giving up 6 home runs. He missed half of 2002 with elbow problems, which I presume must have persisted as he pitched less than 10 innings in 2003. He's another risky proposition, with a high upside and a high downside. These elbow problems may be enough to derail his career, but on the other hand he only turned 20 last month, and his last year at Single-A was good. While these two prospects don't address the biggest need in Minnesota's system, which is the middle infield, these are two fine pitching prospects to pick up as while neither is anything close to a sure bet, they both could become the best player in this deal eventually.
Note: VORP is multiplied by 100 to be easier to read If you couldn't tell, row A is Benito Santiago last year and row B is A.J. Pierzynski last year. I had heard someone bemoaning the fact that the Giants acquired Pierzynski because they had a perfectly fine replacement in Yorvit Torrealba. Row C was set up to compared his stats to the other two and potentially come to the conclusion Brian Sabean had A.J. Pierzynski lite sitting on his own bench. However, Sabean would have noticed if he did, and Torrealba may be a serviceable backup catcher, but he's not starting material on a contending team. So, with Santiago aging the Giants needed a new catcher, and considering they didn't want to, or couldn't afford to, shell out the big bucks for Javy Lopez or Pudge Rodriguez, which may not have been a wise idea anyway, Pierzynski was one of the best names on the market. Some thing his stats might drop because he moves from a slight hitter's ballpark to one of the biggest pitcher's ballparks in the majors. However, I think this will affect Pierzynski less than it might another batter. A.J. is a line-drive hitter with gap power, who doesn't hit a lot of home runs. He won't lose that many homeruns in Pac Bell due to the dimensions and the wind, and he might thrive on hitting the ball into the cavernous gaps in the outfield. He'll lose a few homeruns, but I think A.J. could put up 45 doubles next year, and he'll slot well into the 6th or 7th hole in the Giants lineup. Reports had the Giants with only around $5 million to spend this offseason, and they needed to fill holes at C, 1B and RF, and maybe another arm for the pen. Assuming Pierzynski gets around $2 million in arbitration, which leaves $3 million to address the other needs. Some might see that as a negative, but I don't think it's a huge problem. All reports have this winter being one of lower contracts, and Sabean is a good GM. I think he'll be able to plug those holes with that sort of money, perhaps with a combination like Rondell White and Travis Lee, or something. They may even start prospect Todd Linden in RF next year, so they could spend all the money on a 1B and MR. Regardless, I'd take Pierzynski at $2 million if I had limited alternatives and trust the fact I would be able to acquire reasonable players through free agency, minor league free agency or trades that would cost around $3 million. I've already outlined who San Fran gave up, so now I'll just talk for a bit about how I think it will affect them. Nathan was a good reliever, but if the Giants are able to slot Nen in there next year, that will help them. The bullpen has usually been a strength of the Giants, and if they can find a reliever to replace Worrell with, I think they'll be fine back there with Nen, Rodriguez, Eyre and Herges. The Giants did lose two pitching prospects, but neither were going to help them next year, and the Giants need to contend right now, before Barry retires and they are left with a gaping hole in their lineup. Because you are strong at a certain position is no reason to deal it away unnecessarily, but it does mean you can afford to lose players there more than anywhere else. The Giants have some good young pitching with Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert, and still have some names in the minors like Joel Hanrahan, Jesse English, Noah Lowry and the infamous Eric Threets. I think this is one of those trades
that benefits both teams, and it's not really one where you can
easily declare a winner. Both teams achieved what they wanted and
improved their teams. Also, let me chime in on the manager of the year award talk. First of all, as I said in my article, this is going to be a subjective analysis as "it is difficult to engage in an objective analysis of managers." However, while Phil said "ideally we keep our subjective opinion out of this and stay true to our mission," I'm going to disagree with him there. I see nothing wrong with having subjective opinions in here, and I'm positive I'll do pieces which may be largely subjective in the future. I'd have a problem if I claimed to do an objective piece, but then it consisted entirely of subjective thoughts. However, I can guarantee that subjective pieces will appear on here in the future, although they may not be frequent. Perhaps, that is where I differ from Phil. The feedback received and the discussion it generated was valuable, and it has inspired me to inquire into whether the Pythagorean records have any correlation with managing ability. My guess is that for the most part they are random, and that you may find a few managers who consistently seem to have positive or negative records, but they will be the exception and not the rule. I do stand behind my piece, as managers serve an important function by managing the player's personalities and motivating them. If you don't believe their in-game managerial tactics make much of a difference, look at Grady Little and what happened in game 7. I stand behind the reasoning explained in my article, and would still vote for Jack McKeon if I was handed a ballot. Most of the feedback I received was second-hand, so don't hesitate to e-mail if you have more comments on my articles, I enjoy hearing them. |
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©Copyright 2003
Phil Orr
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