Follow the Bouncing Ball
J.P. Ricciardi lands his second pitcher of the day in a trade that has been rumoured for a while.
11/19/03
Thomas Ayers

Today the Jays brought back a sentimental favourite when they reacquired Pat Hentgen, then promptly acquired a pitcher who he will presumably be asked to mentor. The Jays acquired Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty and a PTBNL in a trade that has basically been rumoured since the Jays acquired Kielty, in a trade J.P. Ricciardi made with his good friend Billy Beane. Lilly, who had a very good last two months of the season, has always been known as a bit of a headcase, who often refuses to take the advice of his coaching staff. I'm not sure if he has been trying to shake that reputation recently, and that was a cause of his success, but I know that in the past a black mark against Lilly has always been his attitude. Hopefully, the coaching of Gil Patterson will help keep Lilly focused, Hentgen and Doc can help to tutor him and he will be able to build on his improvement during the last half of the season.

 Here are Lilly's stats over the past 3 seasons

Year	Team	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	VORP
2001	NYY	120.2	126	20	51	112	5.37	1.47	-4.8
2002	NYY	76.2	57	10	24	59	3.40	1.06	19.0
2002	OAK	23.1	23	5	7	18	4.63	1.29	2.4
2003	OAK	178.1	179	24	58	147	4.34	1.33	20.5

 Lilly's ratios over the past 3 years, rounded to one decimal 

Year	Team	BB/9	K/9	HR/9
2001	NYY	3.8	8.4	1.5
2002	NYY	2.8	6.9	1.2
2002	OAK	2.7	7.0	1.9
2003	OAK	2.9	7.4	1.2

 Let's look at his pre and post all-star break stats for this year, as well 

Year	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Pre ASB	105.1	110	18	37	80	4.96	1.40
Post ASB	73.0	69	6	21	67	3.45	1.23

 Now, two things stand out to me the most when looking at these stats. First, obviously Lilly made a drastic improvement after the ASB this year, cutting down his HR/9 rate drastically, while keeping most of his other ratios in the same range, and that, perhaps with a bit of luck, was what lowered his ERA a full run and a half. The other thing that stands out is that Lilly's ratios in 2003 are very similar to his 2002 ratios with the Yankees, except he was a far better pitcher with New York, due primarily to the fact he allowed a lower percentage of hits when compared to his innings pitched in New York.

If Lilly can keep most his new found talent to avoid homeruns, because keep in mind his year-end ratio was the same as 2002, after he had a great second half allowing 0.7 homers every 9 innings after the ASB, I think that will go a long way to keeping his ERA in the mid-high 3's, as opposed to the low-mid 4's. It's tough to say whether Lilly caught a lucky couple of months, or whether Rick Peterson actually managed to teach him ways to help keep the ball in the ballpark. I think it might be the latter, at least to some degree, as Lilly appeared to be a better pitcher in the second half from everything I've read. He also looked like a good pitcher in his playoff start against Boston. From what I can remember it looked like he had a plan for attacking the Boston hitters and was able to execute it, locating his pitches quite well.

I'd be surprised if Lilly had an ERA in the mid 3's next year though as he benefited from pitching in a pitcher's park, and had a good Oakland defence behind him, whereas Toronto's is not above average. Lilly's ERA was almost a full run lower at home, although his G/F ratio was 0.85, so the defence between Oakland's infield defence and Toronto's, which is where it is most noticeable, won't come into play like it did with Lidle, whose G/F ratio was 1.68.

Toronto's rotation is shaping up nicely for a mid-market team next year as we currently have Doc, Lilly, Hengten, Towers and an unknown quantity, which seems to be a nice improvement on Doc, Lidle, Sturtze, Hendrickson and Pete Walker. I also hold a guarded, but slightly more optimistic outlook for Pat Hengten than Neate does. I know for sure that if I'm back in the T-Dot for his first home start, I'll give him a standing ovation when he walks out to the mound. If the season started today the Jays could have Hendrickson and Walker fight for the 5 hole, and probably throw Vinny Chulk into the mix. While it is growing more and more unlikely the Jays will resign Escobar, I don't think this trade rules out the possibility of that occurring. If they don't sign Escobar I expect another FA or two, possibly some 6-year minor league free agents, to be brought in to fight with Walker and Hendrickson, and possibly Towers too, for the 4 and 5 hole.

This trade affects Toronto's finances negatively as Lilly is due for arbitration this year, while Kielty is still going to receive a minimal salary, I believe. However, since Lilly is due for arbitration this would indicate Toronto controls Lilly's rights for the next 3 years. To have the rights to a good left-handed pitcher for the 3 years when he is 28, 29 and 30 is always a good thing for a rebuilding team on the verge of contending. In my estimation this trade might up Toronto's payroll a million dollars or so.

The Jays lose Kielty's production in the outfield, but I'll always remember his amazing catch at Fenway during this season, when he literally caught the ball, and hung on with one hand, while his whole upper body was hanging over the Boston bullpen. If you've never seen the catch, see it, as it should be the winner of ESPN's catch of the year award. Losing Kielty's offence in the outfield won't affect the Jays very much, as he didn't play very well here, playing worse than Frank Catalanotto and Reed Johnson, the two men who are presumably going to be handed the corner outfielder jobs with Kielty out of the mix. Both of those men put up better numbers then Kielty here, and while Kielty has potential that neither of these two possesses, it's not as high as the potential possessed by the big three outfielders in Toronto's system. I expect Jason Werth will get some playing time as the Jays try to decide whether he has a future and how he fits into their plans, and Gabe Gross will probably be up mid-season, to get some playing time as he works his way into a full-time job for 2005. The Jays might also sign a fourth outfielder; someone such as Matt Stairs. So the net loss offensively for the Jays should be minimal, and it will be due to the playing time given to Werth/Gross, which would have to happen anyway, with Kielty here. Bobby Kielty is a good player, and I think he'll play better in Oakland than he did here; however, he had more value as trade bait than he did in a crowded outfield for the Jays.

Some may construe this as dealing Kielty when he has little value, because of his poor second-half with Toronto. However, while many GMs may view his value as having diminished, Billy Beane realises what Kielty's true value is, and would have a price close to this regardless. Maybe there's a chance that if you held out for a season you could have got more for him, but that would have meant a crowded outfield and a thin pitching staff for this year, which is not something Toronto wants when they have an outside shot at a playoff berth next year. I think it's a deal that benefits the Jays, pending notice of who the PTBNL is. If it's any sort of top prospect (Bush, Perkins, Arnold, Griffin, Rios, Gross, etc..) then I might rethink my conclusion.

Before I talk briefly on how this trade affects the A's, let's recap a few transactions made over the past couple of years. Jeff Weaver was traded to Oakland by Detroit for Carlos Pena, Jeremy Bonderman and Franklyn German. He was then immediately traded to New York for John-Ford Griffin, Jason Arnold and Ted Lilly. Griffin and Arnold were later sent to Toronto in a four-team trade that saw Felipe Lopez end up in Cincinnati, Elmer Dessens in Arizona and Erubiel Durazo and Jason Perry in Oakland. Stewart and a PTBNL were traded to Minnesota by Toronto for Bobby Kielty, and now Kielty and a PTBNL were sent for Lilly. Talk about some interrelated transactions. The Jays have ended up with all 3 players the Yankees dealt for Weaver, and now the Yankees appear to be on the verge of dealing Weaver for whatever they can find. You could even go back to the Carlos Pena (with Mike Venafro) to Oakland trade where the Rangers got Mario Ramos, Gerald Laird, Jason Hart and Ryan Ludwick. Follow the bouncing ball, indeed.

Oakland's offence this year was not good, and Beane's main goal this offseason has to be to improve it. Oakland has some very good pitching, and it's pretty obvious where they good afford to lose some talent without taking a hard hit. Oakland's rotation next year, even with Lilly gone, should give many people the shivers with Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden and Justin Duchscherer/FA signing. That's a very solid top 3, a very good prospect in the 4 hole and a free agent or a young pitcher who did very well in AAA last year in the 5 hole. I don't think Oakland will lose too much replacing Lilly with Duchscherer, and whatever losses they do take should be made up by a full season of Mark Mulder and with improvement by Rich Harden.

Now, Oakland now has Bobby Kielty, and should soon have Mark Kotsay as well, to replace Chris Singleton and Terrance Long in the outfield. I will have a piece on the Kotsay trade out in the next couple of days, but for now let's assume that's not official yet. With this trade they'll have to move Long to CF, however if they are forced to play someone in center, I think they'll play Eric Byrnes there, ass he is the superior offensive and defensive player. So, basically this replaces Kielty with Chris Singleton, and this is a positive move for the Oakland offence.

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	VORP	RARP
Singleton	.245	.301	.340	.641	-2.3	-2.5
Kielty	.244	.358	.400	.758	4.9	12.7

I know that Long also got some at-bats that Kielty will be replacing, but it really doesn't change the fact the A's go from having a very poor offensive player and replacing him with a slightly below average outfielder at the worst. I think Kielty will improve on this year next year, and the difference will be even more noticeable. Even better for Oakland, this saves them about a million bucks, which they can add to the pile to throw at Keith Foulke, as I know they'd love to have him closing for the team for the next few years.

Overall, I think Oakland got the better end of the trade, even in the PTBNL is a marginal prospect at best. Speaking of prospect in Oakland-Toronto trades, Michael Rouse, one of the two players dealt for Lidle last year, hit .300/.392/.405 in 123 games for Double-A Midland in Oakland's system in 2003. While the slugging isn't too impressive, any middle infielder that gets on-base at a .400 clip is going to find a decent amount of work in the major leagues. I wonder if he'll improve upon those numbers next year. As I was saying, I think Oakland got the better end of the deal, but I do think this was a good trade for Toronto to make, and I think it will make us a better team in 2004.