Terrence is Long Gone (In Theory)
The A's deal disgruntled Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez to the Padres for Mark Kotsay
11/26/03
Thomas Ayers

The A's deal disgruntled Terrence Long and Ramon Hernandez to the Padres for Mark Kotsay

 While it appears to be on hold, this article will examine the rumoured, and potentially still in-the-works, trade between Oakland and San Diego, which is on hold due to Mark Kotsay's back. In the proposed deal, Terrance Long and Ramon Herandez would have joined the Padres and their ESPN Page 2 Championship Ugly MLB jerseys, while Kotsay joined Oakland and would have patrolled their cavernous centerfield. I'm actually going to write this article, starting from now, as if the trade has actually been made, because it's my article.

While this is not one of Billy Beane's "Fucking A" trades, I think this trade will benefit Oakland, and likely San Diego, too. So here we have, in the span of a couple of days, three intelligent GMs all improving their teams through trades, while another GM, who felt the need to deal Billy Wagner because he was strapped for cash, signed Brad "54+ OPS" Ausmus to a 2-year $4 million deal. They can't afford Wagner's $9 million salary in 2005, but Houston can afford to throw 1/3^rd of it at a catcher who hit .229/.303/.291 last year with a -17.9 VORP in 2003. Ausmus is a catcher on the wrong side of thirty, and I know he's supposed he's supposed to be excellent defensively and in the clubhouse, but he'd hurt your club even if he was making $300,000. Houston is flushing $1 million next year and $3 million in 2005 down the drain with this signing, and hurting their offence in the process.

For the A's the implications of this trade become very clear immediately. Beane is now able to start Mark Kotsay instead of the unhappy Terrance Long in centerfield, and Eric Byrnes will also probably lose some at-bats because of the deal.

Name	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	VORP	RARP
Byrnes	.263	.333	.459	.739	113	19.7	16.7
Long	.245	.293	.385	.678	83	-8.5	-6.6
Kotsay	.266	.343	.384	.726	97	16.3	15.4

However, the one thing to consider about Byrnes' stats is that he was absolutely brutal after the all-star break, and his OPS dropped by 330 points. That's not a typo; his OPS dropped from in the high 800s to the mid 500s. While Byrnes is neither that good, nor that bad of a player, he might lose some at-bats to Kotsay, which I think will at least keep the A's neutral as Kotsay plays a good defensive centerfield. Kotsay will likely even play better than Byrnes did last year as his 2003 totals were noticeably below his 2000-2002 totals where the lowest OPS he posted was .791, and that was probably due to his back issues. Regardless, the majority of at-bats where the A's now have Kotsay instead of Terrance Long should be a marked offensive improvement.

With Ramon Hernandez, the master of the unexpected bunt in ALCS games, being traded to San Diego Adam Melhuse becomes, for now, the new starting catcher for Oakland. This is a lesson in the nature of free talent, as Billy Beane picked up Melhuse as a six-year minor league free agent last year, and he gained a new catcher basically for free, and now turned Hernandez into trade bait. The interesting question is what will happen to Oakland now behind the plate, as they have dealt their starting catcher, Hernandez, in the deal, as well. Oakland only has one catcher on their 25-man roster right now, so let's examine Adam Melhuse.

Year	Age	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	28	AAA**	306	.324	.425	.457	.882
2000	28	MLB*	23	.174	.269	.261	.530
2001	29	MLB*	71	.183	.241	.254	.495
2002	30	AAA*	153	.348	.424	.609	1.033
2002	30	AAA	226	.292	.370	.469	.839
2003	31	AAA	147	.286	.394	.408	.802
2003	31	MLB	77	.299	.372	.584	.956

* indicates these stats were accumulated while playing for Colorado Springs in AAA or the Rockies in the majors, respectively.
** indicates that these stats are cumulative from 3 teams, one of which was Colorado Springs.

While this man may not be your answer at catcher, I think you could give him a reasonable shot to find out. He's constantly put up OPS' in the 800s at AAA, and if he can reasonably close to that in the majors than you've got very good production from your catcher, especially given Melhuse's OBP. If he manages to hit like he did in the 77 at-bats last year, well then, it's another reason to bow down to Billy Beane. I expect Oakland will sign a steady, unspectacular, but cost-effective catcher, probably one who bats from the right side, to platoon with Melhuse, but I'd be very surprised if they didn't give Melhuse every opportunity to rack up 300 or so at-bats next year. I could even see Tom Wilson, a suspected non-tender by the Blue Jays, joining the A's-Blue Jays merry-go-round and heading back to Oakland, either as the right-handed partner of Melhuse or maybe as a minor-league contract invitee who will challenge the other free agent signing in spring training. Wilson's nothing great offensively, but seeing as how similar his stats were for the past two years, you could pretty well pencil him down for those sorts of numbers in 2004. I think Beane may aim higher at first though and I doubt Wilson is Beane's first choice, or else I think JP would have thrown Wilson into the Lilly deal basically for free, as we got him through similar means. Here's a crazy thought, Beane has a catcher or two in mind who he's going to target, probably through FA though maybe through the trade route, and if he fails to sign that player or the player wants to much money, Wilson will be the player going back to Oakland as the PTBNL in the Lilly deal.

In a very candid interview with Baseball Prospectus several weeks ago Kevin Towers had the following exchange:

BP: With shortstop set and the other positions locked up, catcher would seem to be the one area where you'd need to fill a hole. How do you plan to address the catcher spot? We've heard mention of Brad Ausmus and Benito Santiago as possibilities, but Ausmus can't hit and Santiago's too old to be a long-term answer. Are you really looking in that direction?

Towers: Ausmus and Santiago are more fallback guys--I'd rate them Santiago, then Ausmus in order of preference. But we also have to keep in mind that we only have a certain amount of dollars to work with. So we need to ask whether we'll direct dollars to the catching position or to pitching. I do have a couple of potential trades up my sleeve that I can't mention right now. That's kind of the way I'm leaning right now, to look at making a trade for a catcher.

BP: Well, you brought it up, you have to at least give us a hint...

Towers: I'll say that we're looking at two or three guys on other clubs, two AL guys, one NL guy. All three play for three of the eight playoff clubs.

I give a lot of credit to J.P. Ricciardi for being one of the most open GMs in baseball today, but that statement surprised even me, who is used to J.P. being fairly open about his plans. Towers was not only open in that he was looking into acquiring a catcher; he was clear in that he was looking to acquire one through trade, from a playoff team no less. He also said the team had targeted three catchers specifically. I imagine many people immediately began to wonder who those catchers were. I did and I came up with, as I think many did, the names of A.J. Pierznyski, Ramon Hernandez and Ramon Castro, the reserve catcher on the Marlins. Varitek and Posada were unlikely to be traded, so therefore the logical other names were Hernandez and Pierzynski. In the NL, Benito Santiago, Pudge and Javy Lopez were free agents, so the logical guesses were Damian Miller or Ramon Castro, and the latter put up solid numbers, albeit in 50 at-bats, as Pudge's backup this year.

Ramon Hernandez would be a solid upgrade over the tandem of Gary Bennett (.238/.296/.306) and Miguel Ojeda (.234/.331/.364). Even though Hernandez's OBP isn't a great mark at .331 for 2003 and .322 for his career, his SLG is noticeably higher at .458 last year, and .400 for his career. Hernandez, who will be 28 next year compared to Bennet's 32, is not only also in the prime of his career, but he has a reputation as a very good defensive catcher, something which should help San Diego's young pitchers. Part of the reason for Lilly's improvement was said to be Hernandez's game-calling skills, and the fact that Rick Peterson and Oakland's coaching staff strongly discouraged him from shaking Hernandez off. If Hernandez's reputation is true he should greatly help out pitchers like Brian Lawrence, Jake Peavy and some of their upper-level minor league talent like Mike Bynum, Dennis Tankersley and Ben Howard.

Assuming Bruce Bochy doesn't suffer from a brain aneyuerism and decide that starting Terrance Long is a good idea, San Diego's new outfield should look like Nevin/Klesko-Giles-Nady. Assuming San Diego keeps Burroughs at third base, and I think they will with the emergence of Josh Barfield in the minors the past year, that should mean that one of Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin will play first base, and one will play left field, I'm just not sure who will play where. Brian Giles will patrol centerfield and Xavier Nady will play rightfield, and he is the one who will presumably get the at-bats Kotsay would have had. I don't think Nady will ever become an all-star calibre player, but I like his chances of improving on a .267/.321/.391 season at age 24. If he improves marginally on his production, he should more or less equal Kotsay's offensive production, although the loss of Kotsay means San Diego's outfield defence will be noticeably worse next year, with Giles shifting from the corner to centerfield, and so forth.

So here is another trade where both teams improve themselves, or at least it will be if it goes through, much like the Oakland-Toronto swap. As a Jays fan, and also an A's supporter (2^nd favourite team), I can't say I'm very happy at all with the Schilling, Foulke, Francona rumours to Boston. Sheffield maybe going to the Yanks, and Baltimore has always said to be interested in Guerrero. The AL East will be a busy division before the off-season is over.

I also have to share a line I found very funny while reading about Pat Hentgen's signing over at Baseball Primer. After the writer said that it was a fairly solid signing, several readers posted comments, including one who asked, "Do the O's get props for not picking up a $4 million option on a pitcher's whose open market value is only half of that?" A poster named Vlad replied, "I suppose so, if by 'props' you mean not 'beaten by a lead pipe.'" That line killed me, but it maybe just me.