Has Billy Beane Lost His Mind?
Why the best GM in baseball had better not get comfortable
12/31/03
Aaron Wolfson

          There is a good chance that 2003 will come to be known as the Year of Theo.  The boy genius in Boston made some wonderful moves that brought the Sox to within a few innings of the World Series, and sabermetricians and casual fans alike were quick to baptize Epstein as The Next Big Thing.  But what of the pioneer?  The man who brought sabermetrics into the big time?  I speak, of course, of Billy Beane.

          Well, it turns out that things have been anything but peachy over on the Left Coast.  In fact, ever since the firestorm created by Michael Lewis' portrait of Beane's organization, Moneyball, Oakland has made a series of less than stellar moves that call into question Beane's status as the game's great mind.  Last year, in what has become an annual tradition for the A's, the team limped out of the gate and found themselves staring upward at the division leader.  And again, as usual, Oakland found a way to claw to the top and earn yet another playoff spot, despite continuing to sport the payroll of an extreme small-market team.  Finally, like they had done in each of the previous three seasons, the A's managed to lose the Division Series in five games.  So what was different this time?

          The Fucking A trade.  In Moneyball, Beane described to Lewis his goal during the period just prior to baseball's trading deadline:  make a trade that causes the rest of the league to say, "fucking A."  In past years, Beane has been able to acquire such luminaries as Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, and Ray Durham.  So who would he pluck this year from some poor GM's unsuspecting clutches?  Jose Guillen.  Yes, the same Jose Guillen that sports a career .315 OBP.  Not only did Beane fail to make a big splash in the trade market, but the best guy he got was acquired not out of cunning, but out of necessity.  With Dye's injury problems and Eric Byrnes' descent to Earth, Oakland positively needed to get another outfield bat.  And Guillen was the best they could do.

          Of course, that's only the start.  What Beane has done this offseason is even more baffling than his sudden failure to make a huge trade.  So cash-strapped in past years that he needed to check with his owner in order to take on Ricardo Rincon's salary, Beane has gone on an unprecedented splurge.  And what's more, the money he's spending is going to players who aren't anywhere near worth it.  One of Beane's first moves this offseason was actually a good one, when he finally got rid of the black hole named Terrance Long and brought back Mark Kotsay from the Padres.  Unfortunately however, this meant also sending starting catcher Ramon Hernandez down to San Diego.  So who to get that will plug the hole?  Certainly free agents Javier Lopez and Ivan Rodriguez were out of Beane's league.  Then there were oldies like Benito Santiago.  Eschewing the free agent market, Beane ultimately decided to trade for Damian Miller from the Cubs.  Instantly, a collective groan was heard throughout the Bay Area.  Damian Miller?  This guy got paid $2.7 million last year to put up a .680 OPS.  What's that, you say?  Miller was instrumental in handling the Cubs' young but talented starting staff?  Give me a break!  Any catcher worth his salt ought to be able to sit back there and catch fireballs from Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano.  I don't buy it.

          And we haven't even gotten to what Beane has done to the checkbook on the pitching side of things.  In the past two days, Oakland has shelled out $20 million for two pitchers, Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes.  Redman is not a bad pitcher -- he has a career 4.27 ERA and last year had a K/BB ratio of 2.48 and a K/9 ratio of 7.13, both career highs.  But the problem with Redman's career ERA is that it has come in vast pitcher's parks, Detroit's Comerica Park and Florida's Pro Player Stadium.  Granted, Oakland also plays in a park that favors pitchers, but at the same time, Redman's stats must be taken with a large grain of salt.  In addition, the A's don't even need Mark Redman.  Has Beane forgotten that he has four of the most talented young starting pitchers in all of baseball?  With a foursome like Hudson, Zito, Mulder, and Harden, where does Redman go should the A's make the playoffs again?  That's right:  the bullpen.  Great use of $11 million, Billy.  And then there's the $9 million contract given to Rhodes, one of the game's top lefthanded relievers.  Presumably, Rhodes will fill the void left by the departure of closer Keith Foulke to Theo in Boston.  Arthur is 34 years old and is coming off of his worst season in 5 years.  Not only that, he's in the same boat as Redman, having pitched in Seattle's cavernous Safeco Field.

          So the A's look to head into the 2004 season with a load of extra baggage, and without one of their best hitters, Miguel Tejada (overrated as he was).  What lies in store for the future of Billy Beane?  Can his undeniable genius and foresight overcome his recent brain farts, or has he gone completely mad?  Only time will tell.